Intelligent Investment
Fragile Straits, Steady Rates
Canada Monthly Market Commentary - April 2026
April 29, 2026 2 Minute Read
A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East has brought some degree of stability to global markets in recent weeks, but conditions remain far from settled. Following the acute volatility seen last month, equity markets have rebounded with major indices fully recouping their losses from the war and are currently hovering near record highs. Oil prices have retreated a little but still remain quite elevated. Meanwhile, bond markets have also steadied with the Canada 10-year yield holding around the 3.47% range all month. As things stand, the duration of the Middle East conflict is the crucial variable for how financial markets may respond going forward, as well as how interest rate expectations will evolve.
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada continued to hold the policy interest rate at 2.25% in this month’s monetary policy meeting. Uncertainty is still high and the central bank is choosing to hold and keep monitoring for longer term economic impacts from the war. While headline inflation has risen and is expected to increase further from the oil price shock, the central bank remains prepared to look past this temporary volatility as long as it does not spread into broader inflation. Core measures of inflation have held stable so far, though recent business surveys by the central bank suggest firms are already facing higher costs or expect to in the coming months. Economic growth forecasts from the Bank of Canada were largely unchanged and remain positive for the year. Overall, most economist groups still expect the central bank to keep interest rates flat throughout 2026.
With monetary policy seemingly on hold for now, the federal government has moved to expand fiscal support to spur economic growth and investment in Canada. Initiatives have included temporarily suspending taxes on gas, creating Canada’s first-ever sovereign wealth fund, approval of the expansion of a B.C. LNG pipeline and hosting a global investment summit in September. If enacted successfully, these measures could all contribute to stimulating major investment and long term economic growth in Canada.
Amid all the geopolitical tension, Canada’s relative safety and stability is attracting attention from global and institutional capital. Real estate as an asset class is regaining momentum and major deals and acquisitions in Canada continue to be announced across most of the major asset classes. According to the CBRE Canadian Cap Rates & Investment Insights Q1 2026 report, investment capital has been active but also selective with investors gravitating towards high quality assets and durable income streams. In today’s environment, this trend is likely to continue as long as uncertainty remains elevated.
Economic Highlights:
- Employment rises by slightly by 14,100 jobs in March 2026 while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%.
- Headline inflation rose to 2.4% in March 2026 as core measures CPI-Trim and CPI-Median both largely held steady at 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively.
- Retail sales grew 0.7% month-over-month in February 2026 and advanced estimates suggest 0.6% growth in March 2026.
Viewpoints:
- US Stocks Set Fresh Record High as Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire
- Revised BoC survey of firms found higher expected input prices after Iran war
- Canada to set up sovereign wealth fund with initial funding of C$25 billion
- Carney announces new summit in Toronto aimed at driving $1 trillion in investment
- CBRE Canadian Cap Rates & Investment Insights Q1 2026
- Bank of Canada holds interest rate as it warns of higher inflation
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