Australian Residential Figures Report Q1 2026

Key Findings:

• Australia’s residential market outlook has become more uncertain as we move through the first half of 2026. Higher interest rates were already expected prior to the escalation of Middle East tensions, and ongoing disruptions to global supply chains are now likely regardless of how the conflict evolves. Higher fuel costs are expected to keep inflation elevated, limiting scope for interest rate relief. Rising building costs and supply chain challenges will further constrain new supply, reinforcing undersupply, low vacancy rates and continued rental pressure. Potential capital gains tax and negative gearing reforms flagged ahead of the May Federal Budget also create additional uncertainty for investors.
• Price growth is expected to soften through the remainder of 2026, but with variation between markets. Early signs of correction are emerging in Sydney and Melbourne, while Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record growth despite substantial gains already in the cycle. Brisbane and Perth remain supported by strong population growth and limited supply, although broader macroeconomic pressures are likely to slow momentum across all markets.
• Rental conditions remain exceptionally tight. The national vacancy rate was just 1.0% in March Population growth of 1.5% to June 2025 added around 410,000 people over the year, while new supply continues to lag. As a result, rental pressure is expected to persist, with CBRE forecasting average annual capital-city rental growth of around 5% through to 2030.