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The Global Warehousing Wave


David Egan, Global Head of Industrial & Logistics Research, explores what’s driving robust investment demand and returns for industrial and logistics assets with Jack Fraker, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Global Industrial & Logistics, and Simon Blake, Chairman, Industrial & Logistics – UK & Continental Europe.

Robust Fundamentals

The industrial and logistics sector continues to dominate global investment demand amid the rise of e-commerce and restrictions on new supply. Institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and others are gravitating to the strong fundamentals, reliable returns and steady rental rate growth.

More Discipline Around Supply

In earlier cycles, high occupancy levels would trigger a wave of speculative development. Today, improved market data is driving more discipline among debt and equity investment committees, who require more stringent underwriting backed by market fundamentals. That has meant less capital funneling into spec warehouses, and higher occupancy rates — including nine straight years of positive absorption. Speculative projects that do get the green light are leasing well ahead of development pro forma.

Regional Nuances

Industrial and logistics real estate is quickly moving into a new phase of globalization, adding to its desirability. For every $1 billion in additional e-commerce sales, businesses require 1 million square feet of warehousing. As robust consumer demand continues to drive e-commerce, investors are looking to Europe, where penetration rates are still relatively low compared to the U.S.

Global Opportunities at Scale

Whereas small deals dominated in the past, the industrial and logistics sector now provides opportunities for investors to place from $1 billion to $13 billion Euros in a single transaction ($1.09B to $14.2B US). The asset class is also favored by pension plans and sovereign wealth funds from an actuarial perspective, who like the predictable and strong cash-on-cash returns, and lower operating costs than other asset classes.

Rent Growth

With occupiers’ location preferences getting more complex, expect logistics rental growth to continue in key logistics hubs across both the U.S. and Europe. Higher rental growth will be found in good secondary locations; those which have access to available skilled labor force, population density, and key transport corridors. Small- and mid-box rental growth will outperform as e-commerce retailers and service providers seek facilities to deliver the last mile and keep battling the erosion of industrial land to other land use.

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Contributors

Jack Fraker
Jack Fraker
Vice Chairman, Managing Director
Capital Markets, Industrial
+1 214 979 6300
+1 214 538 2070
+1 214 919 4004
Simon Blake
Simon Blake
Chairman, Industrial & Logistics – UK & Continental Europe
+44 20 7182 2360
david-egan-768x582
David Egan
Head of Industrial & Logistics Research, Americas & Global
+1 312 9351892
+1 312 9351880